Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2023

The economic outlook for Asia and the Pacific remains upbeat, with the region’s developing economies expected to grow 4.7% in 2023, and 4.8% in 2024, but risks remain elevated.

According to the latest edition of the Asian Development Outlook, growth will remain resilient, supported by domestic demand, recovering tourism, and stable financial conditions. Decelerating inflation across the region is also a positive. However, these prospects are tempered by weaker global demand weighing on exports and softening domestic demand in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A particular worry is whether the PRC’s property market will weaken further.

The region faces other challenges. High interest rates have elevated financial stability risks. A looming El Niño and restrictions on food exports could challenge food security. And geopolitical tensions and the fracturing of global production could disrupt trade. These risks are considerable and varied, and policymakers will need to closely track them.

Contents

• Part 1: Solid Growth and Falling Inflation, But Rising Risks 
  The Recovery in Services Is Supporting Growth
  Regional Growth and Inflation Continue Converging to Pre-Pandemic Rates 
  Risks to Regional Growth Tilted to the Downside 
  Special Topic: Spillovers from a Further Weakening of the Property Market in the People’s Republic of China
  Annex: Slower Growth in Advanced Economies, But No Recession

• Part 2: Economic Trends and Prospects in Developing Asia 
  Caucasus and Central Asia
  East Asia
  South Asia 
  Southeast Asia 
  The Pacific 

• Statistical Appendix

Published September 2023.